Aengus Moorehead NFL Football Week 6 Betting Picks

Saturday, October 16, 2010

by Aengus Moorehead

Aengus Moorehead NFL Football Week 6 Betting Picks

Greetings Lasses and Lads

Two of the most popular picks last week were the Packers at Washington and New Orleans in Arizona. Not only did Green Bay Packers and New Orleans fail to cover the spread, they both lost outright.  It seemed every bettor took the New Orleans Saints and they never really were in position to cover against Arizona and ended up losing the game. Other underdogs to cover early on Sunday were Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Chicago and the New York Giants. The Jaguars outscored the Bills, Tampa came back to beat Cincinnati late, the Bears dominated Carolina while New York pummeled Houston.

The other three favorites that covered along with the Colts were Baltimore, Detroit and Atlanta.  The Baltimore Ravens and Lions were in control of their games throughout while the Falcons were fortunate to cover vs. Cleveland. Jake Delhomme came into the game for Cleveland after Seneca Wallace got hurt and simply threw the game and the cover away for the Browns.  He threw two interceptions that cost Cleveland the game.

The Football Betting fans that thought things would turn around in the late games were disappointed.  San Diego was favored at Oakland and found a way to lose another game they should have won.  Dallas was a very popular pick at home vs. Tennessee but Wade Phillips proved once again he doesn’t have his team ready to play and the Cowboys handed the game to the Titans. 

My record against the spread:
Last week: 5-9
Season: 38-38
This week’s blue chip prediction: Tennessee (-3.5) at Jacksonville.
This week upset special: Oakland (+6.5) at San Francisco.
Blowout of the week: San Diego over St-Louis.

Idle Teams: Arizona-Buffalo-Carolina-Cincinnati.

- Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at Chicago Bears

Last week’s result:
Seattle was idled.
Chicago (-3.5) beats host Carolina 23-6.

Last week against the Spread:
Chicago covers.

Analysis:
The extra week of preparation during the bye week will make an impact early when Seattle is able to take advantage of some Bears’ problems in the offensive line. The Bears normally have early blocking woes and then counter with adjustments that open up the offense, and it could happen again.

Matt Hasselbeck has had success attacking the Bears' cover 2 by being patient with underneath routes and will look there for tight end John Carlson, who has been their best receiver. The Giants did that to eventually beat the Bears' defense, but Seattle doesn't have the complementary running game to wear out the Bears, and that will prevent an upset. Take points and Seahawks.

Be a player and bet on Seattle (+7.5) at Chicago at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers

Last week’s result:
Miami was idled.
Green Bay (-2.5) loses to host Washington 16-13.

Last week against the Spread:
Green Bay loses outright.

Analysis:
It's hard to tell what kind of team the Packers will field. If Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews play, they have a shot to win. If Rodgers is out, they have very little shot and if Matthews is out, too, they have no chance. Let's assume Rodgers plays. Look for coach Mike McCarthy to take the pressure off him with the running game and Rodgers to do just enough to win. Carefully take Packers.

Be a player and bet on Miami (+2.5) at Green Bay at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- Detroit Lions (+10.5) at New York Giants

Last week’s result:
Detroit (-3.5) beats visiting St-Louis 44-6.
NY Giants (+3.5) beats host Houston 34-10.

Last week against the Spread:
Detroit covers.
NY Giants upsets.

Analysis:
After playing four close games and losing all four by a combined 24 points, the Lions demolished the Rams 44-6. Winning on the road is a different story, though, and the Giants are coming off their most complete game of the season in Houston.

The Giants threw the ball all day vs. the Texans but will likely look to go with more of a ball-control attack against the Lions, who are porous against the run. The Lions will look to get the ball to TE Brandon Pettigrew and slow the defensive rush with quick passes to RB Jahvid Best, who already has a 75-yard touchdown reception this season. The Giants would have to turn it over a bunch to fall here. Take Giants.

Be a player and bet on Detroit (+10.5) at New York at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- Cleveland Browns (+14.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week’s result:
Cleveland (+3.5) loses to visiting Atlanta 20-10.
Pittsburgh was idled.

Last week against the Spread:
Cleveland loses and does not cover.

Analysis:
With injuries at quarterback and running back, it's going to be difficult for the Browns to move the ball adequately and score points against the Steelers, who have allowed a league-low 50 points in four games. The return of Roethlisberger will provide an emotional lift for the offense, not to mention help take some of the pressure off Mendenhall and the running game. The Browns blitzed and pressured Roethlisberger for eight sacks in the last meeting in Cleveland in 2009 and they will have to do that again to keep this game close. Coming off a loss and getting an extra week of practice with Roethlisberger during the bye, the Steelers will come out charging. Take Steelers.

Be a player and bet on Cleveland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- San Diego Chargers (-8.5) at St-Louis Rams

Last week’s result:
San Diego (-6.5) loses to host Oakland 35-27.
St-Louis (+3.5) loses to host Detroit 44-6.

Last week against the Spread:
San Diego loses outright.
St-Louis loses and does not cover.

Analysis:
With the kind of offensive numbers the Chargers have been piling up, it's hard to believe they're 2-3. All of the losses have come on the road, and the Rams have easily played their best ball this season in the Edward Jones Dome. But unless San Diego continues its incredible run of special teams follies, it's impossible to think that the Rams can keep pace with the Chargers' offense. That's especially true now that WR Mark Clayton is gone for the season. The Rams' only chance would seem to be a ball-control offense and several turnovers on defense. Take Chargers.

Be a player and bet on San Diego (-8.5) at St-Louis at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last week’s result:
New Orleans (-7.5) loses to host Arizona 30-20.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) beats host Cincinnati 24-21.

Last week against the Spread:
New Orleans loses outright.
Tampa Bay upsets.

Analysis:
The Bucs are catching the Saints at a good time. The Saints are not on top of their game, they're a little banged up and they're on the road. This is another chance for the Bucs to legitimize their surprising start, but New Orleans is still the better team. Look for the Saints to right their ship and for their veterans to find a way to get back on the winning track. Take points and Buccaneers.

Be a player and bet on New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- Oakland Raiders (+6.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Last week’s result:
Oakland (+6.5) beats visiting San Diego 35-27.
San Francisco (-3.5) loses to visiting Philadelphia 27-24.

Last week against the Spread:
Oakland upsets.
San Francisco loses outright.

Analysis:
The 49ers desperately need to win this game as QB Alex Smith's job -- and perhaps Singletary's job -- are riding on the team stringing a few wins together. The team promises to come out with
a more aggressive approach on offense and Smith has said he will shed his cloak of caution, which, he said has counter-intuitively led to more interceptions this season.

The question is whether all that pressure will cause the 49ers to play tightly. When they do, they tend to have catastrophic mistakes, as was the case with a Nate Clements fumble in Atlanta and Smith's fumble Sunday night that was returned for a touchdown.

The Raiders, meanwhile, exploited the Chargers' weak spots last week, including blocking two punts. They'd like nothing more than to add to their cross-bay rivals' misery. Take Raiders.

Be a player and bet on Oakland (+6.5) at San Francisco at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Washington Redskins

Last week’s result:
Indianapolis (8.5) beats visiting Kansas City 19-9.
Washington (+2.5) beats visiting Green Bay 16-13.

Last week against the Spread:
Indianapolis covers.
Washington upsets.

Analysis:
The Redskins have been good at the right time in their three wins; they've also received a healthy dose of good fortune, between injuries to key players (Michael Vick, Clay Matthews, Jermichael Finley) and missed field goals.

The Redskins are a resilient, tough-minded group. But there are questions about the health of their offensive tackles, and the running game has been inconsistent. That puts too much on Donovan McNabb's shoulders and Indianapolis is built to defend the pass.

The Colts have not played consistently, but Washington's soft zones will be exploited by Peyton Manning. Take Colts.

Be a player and bet on Indianapolis (-3.5) at Washington at Bodog Sportsbook

 

- Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Last week’s result:
Tennessee (+6.5) beats host Dallas 34-27.
Jacksonville (-1.5) beats host Buffalo 36-26.

Last week against the Spread:
Tennessee upsets.
Jacksonville covers.

Analysis:
The rivalry between these two teams has been intense. Titans coach Jeff Fisher and Jack Del Rio, both ex-USC Trojans, have built teams predicated on running the ball and playing good defense. The problem for the Jaguars is they haven't been a stout defense since 2006 and are ranked 30th this year. The running games and special teams look like a push, so this could come down to whichever quarterback, David Garrard or Vince Young, can make a big play and avoid the costly turnover. Garrard is 2-6 as a starter against the Titans, who have a knack of breaking Jacksonville's heart. Take Titans.

Be a player and bet on Tennessee (-3.5) at Jacksonville at Bodog Sportsbook

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baltimore ravens - chicago bears - cleveland browns - detroit lions - football betting - green bay packers - green bay packers - indianapolis colts - jacksonville jaguars - jake delhomme

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